Why the U.S. cares about Saudi Arabia's newly named crown prince
Saudi Arabia's King Salman in a surprise announcement named his son Mohammed bin Salman as crown prince, making him first-in-line to the throne. The prince, 31, who has been defense minister and popularly known as MBS, is a hawkish statesman who formed a strong bond with President Trump when they met in March.
The change stripped Mohammed bin Nayef, 57, of his title as crown prince and interior minister, overseeing security.
The appointment of the new crown prince could have a strong impact on Saudi policy in several key areas that matter to the United States:
Confrontation with Iran
Saudi Arabia and Iran are regional rivals who support opposing parties in civil wars in Yemen and Syria.
Saudi naval forces on June 16 seized an Iranian vessel suspected of carrying explosives and members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to attack a Saudi oil facility in the Persian Gulf.
U.S. forces have long tried to avert open conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran on the high seas, said Eric Pelofsky, a special assistant to former president Barack Obama who focused on the war in Yemen. “At the moment, the crown prince seems to think always on offense is the way to go,” Pelofsky said.
Bin Salman, whose Sunni monarchy considers itself the protector of Islam’s holiest shrines in Mecca and Medina, accused Shiite Iran of trying to “control the Arab world” and dismissed the possibility of a dialogue because of its leaders’ “extremist ideology.”
“We are not waiting until there becomes a battle in Saudi Arabia, so we will work so that it becomes a battle for them in Iran,” he said in a May 2 interview that ran on several Saudi television channels.
Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, Gholamali Khoshroo, later called the comments “unveiled threats.”
The rivalry with Iran drives most of Saudi Arabia’s international relations and helps shape its dealings with the United States, said Hussein Ibish, of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, a think tank.
He said bin Salman’s hawkish approach to Iran is in line with Trump, who has made countering Iran and its support for terrorism a priority.
When Trump and bin Salman met in March, the meeting was supposed to last less than 30 minutes but went on for more than three hours and included an impromptu lunch.
Diplomatic tensions with Iran are not likely to ease, but there could be an advantage to the prince's hawkish stance, Ibish said.
“It’s easier for a hawk sometimes to make a compromise, because they’re less vulnerable to being accused of giving away the store,” he said.
Israeli-Palestinian relations
Saudi Arabia and Israel share a common enemy in Iran and an alliance with the United States, and all three are fighting terrorism and coordinating those efforts to some extent. The failure of peace efforts between the Israelis and Palestinians has prevented full diplomatic and economic relations.
Bin Salman would like to develop what today is a clandestine security and trade relationship with Israel into an open and deeper partnership, said Simon Henderson, director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Henderson said it’s unclear if bin Salman’s priority is to get a peace agreement or to find an interim solution that would “park (the Israeli-Palestinian conflict) on one side of the road.”
Ibish said the Saudi prince's calculation would likely be based on how close he can get to Israel without providing fodder to “extremists and fanatics” in the region who capitalize on Arabs’ legitimate concerns about the Israeli occupation and Palestinian rights.
“Anyone who deals with the Israelis gets slammed with this,” Ibish said.
As Trump’s adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner arrived in Israel this week to discuss a possible peace deal, Ibish said the goal is not necessarily a “final status agreement,” but rather “real progress” that provides stability and hope for a future resolution. “This is the thinking among those in the Gulf interested in this,” including bin Salman, Ibish said.
Rift with Qatar
Bin Salman is likely playing a key role in the rift with Qatar in the Saudi-led Gulf Cooperation Council.
Saudi Arabia sought to isolate Qatar to pressure the small nation to end its support for extremist groups, such as the Muslim Brotherhood and others that seek to challenge the leadership of the Sunni-led monarchies of the Persian Gulf.
Qatar is a key U.S. ally and host to U.S. forces coordinating the air campaign against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, and naval forces patrolling the Persian Gulf.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on June 21 implored members of the Gulf council — including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait — to present their demands to Qatar, which is also a member.
Lori Plotkin Boghardt, a former Saudi Arabia analyst at the CIA now at the Washington Institute, said bin Salman is likely to adopt more assertive policies as Saudi Arabia has pursued over the past two years.
Bin Salman believes his country “needs to act more assertively when it comes to regional policy so it can protect itself and other Gulf countries from the tragic chaos and insecurity that’s marked the region,” Plotkin Boghardt said.
U.S.-Saudi-Russia relationship
Bin Salman has fostered good relations with Russia, another major oil producer, and with the United States, which Saudi Arabia relies on for security and high-end military hardware.
The Russia-Saudi relationship is focused on preventing a free-fall in the price of oil. Since Moscow is also allied with Iran in Syria, it provides the Saudis an indirect, and useful, communications channel to Iran.
Bin Salman “has been a big part of the diplomatic outreach to Russia,” Ibish said.
The crown prince also developed a strong relationship with Trump, who announced a $110 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia that the U.S. president said would boost American jobs during his visit.
“The Saudis have put a lot of effort into recruiting Trump to their view of the region, and they’ve been quite successful at it,” Plotkin Bloghardt said. “They seem to have Trump and some of his key advisers on board. We can expect this kind of campaign from the Saudis to continue.”
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Saudi Arabia’s King Salman names his son as first heir