ISIS losses in Syria bolster Assad's ability to reclaim control

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration’s focus on battling the Islamic State is having an unintended consequence in Syria’s long civil war: Russian-backed dictator Bashar Assad is making steady gains in reclaiming control of his country.

Syrian government forces this week defeated the Islamic State in a key battle, further expanding the regime’s influence in northeastern Syria and bringing them a step closer to U.S.-backed troops near the same area.

The advances by both regime and U.S.-backed forces have prompted the Russians and the United States to expand their military contacts, which have in effect divided Syria into zones of influence.

The need for these talks are growing more urgent as the territory controlled by the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, is shrinking and an increasing number of forces are converging in a small area in northeast Syria.

The critical area is south of Raqqa, the Islamic State's de facto capital, where the Euphrates River has served as a border between Russian-backed Syrian forces and U.S.-backed local militias fighting ISIS.

The Russians and Americans are figuring out how to extend that line as both U.S.-backed and Syrian regime forces make headway against ISIS.

The contacts between the U.S. and Russian military began as a way to avoid mishaps between their aircraft but this year expanded to create buffers on the ground between the two sides.

The de facto buffer zones are giving the Syrian regime room to expand its influence, analysts say.

Earlier this week regime forces reached a beleaguered army brigade outpost in Deir el-Zour that had been surrounded by ISIS for several years.

ISIS still controls much of the town and surrounding area with about 2,500 militants, the Pentagon said, but the Syrian army success gives the regime an important foothold in an oil-rich area.

“We’re allowing the Syrian regime to come back,” said Jennifer Cafarella, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War.

The coalition has continued to bomb ISIS targets throughout the Euphrates River Valley, despite Assad regime gains, the Pentagon has said.

Still, the coalition is "concerned" about the Syrian regime's commitment to defeating ISIS, said Col. Ryan Dillon, a coalition spokesman.

For example, the Assad regime was recently party to an agreement that allowed an ISIS convoy leave an area near the Lebanese border and head toward the border with Iraq.

The coalition has blocked the convoy from getting to its destination by cratering a road and knocking out a bridge. It has not targeted vehicles in the convoy because the fighters are traveling with women and children.

The administration’s policy in Syria is somewhat contradictory, analysts say. The Pentagon has said it welcomes any assistance in eliminating ISIS, but the administration has also said that Assad should step down.

Assad is backed by Iran and Hezbollah, a Shiite militia backed by Iran, in addition to Russia.

“Islamic State losses are good,” said Matthew Levitt, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Regime gains with help from the likes of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah are not good.”

The war against ISIS is increasingly concentrated in the Euphrates River Valley, which stretches 150 miles from Syria into Iraq. Many militant leaders have escaped into the string of villages along the river, as Raqqa has come under increasing pressure.

“The final stand of ISIS will be in the middle Euphrates River Valley,” said Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend, who recently stepped down as the top coalition commander for Iraq and Syria.

“As they converge there have to be measures put into place to ensure we stay focused on our enemy, which is ISIS,” Dillon said.

Michael Knights, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the limited talks between the coalition and Russia are "about staying out of each other’s way.” The Pentagon is barred by law from conducting more extensive cooperation with Russian forces.

The Assad regime sees the defeat of ISIS, which opposes the regime, as a means to expand its grip on territory. The Assad regime has been steadily recapturing ground it had lost after more than six years of civil war.

The U.S. has several hundred advisers and other forces in Syria backing the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which consist of about 50,000 Kurdish and Arab fighters.

But the United States has made it clear it doesn't intend to remain in Syria. The SDF, America's key ally there, is opposed to the Islamic State, but may be willing to work with Assad’s regime once the militants are defeated.

“We have a counter ISIL policy,” Levitt said. “We don’t have a Syria policy.”

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