The Islamic State lost its last foothold in Syria on Saturday after years of fighting. But the terrorist group remains a serious, violent threat.
Many of its top leaders are still alive. And it continues to carry out attacks, including one in January that killed 15 people, including four Americans, outside a shawarma restaurant in the city of Manbij, Syria. After a period of relative calm early last year, the United States-led coalition has ramped up strikes against ISIS in Syria since August.
Strikes against ISIS by the U.S.-led coalition in Syria
In April, Trump said:
“I want to bring our troops back home. It’s time. We were very successful against ISIS.”
1,000 strikes
per month
500
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
As of Jan. 26
In April, Trump said:
Strikes against ISIS by the U.S.-led coalition in Syria
“I want to bring our troops back home. It’s time. We were very successful against ISIS.”
1,000 strikes
per month
500
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
As of Jan. 26
Strikes against ISIS by the U.S.-led
coalition in Syria
In April, Trump said:
“I want to bring our troops back home. It’s time. We were very successful against ISIS.”
1,000 strikes
per month
500
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
As of Jan. 26
Strikes against ISIS by the U.S.-led
coalition in Syria
In April,
Trump said:
“I want to bring our troops back home. It’s time. We were very successful against ISIS.”
1,000 strikes
per month
500
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Note: 2019 data is as of Jan. 26
Strikes against ISIS by the
U.S.-led coalition in Syria
500
1,000 strikes
per month
2015
2016
2017
In April, Trump said:
“I want to bring our troops back home. It’s time. We were very successful against ISIS.”
2018
2019
Note: 2019 data is as of Jan. 26
By nearly every metric, the Islamic State is at its lowest point in the almost five years since it declared its caliphate. The group controls no territory in Iraq and Syria, attacks are down and the number of foreign fighters it continues to recruit is a fraction of what it was at its height. But analysts who have studied ISIS since its rise in Iraq more than 15 years ago point out that the group is far more powerful today than it was when American forces pulled out of Iraq in 2011.
ISIS has adapted to its losses, returning to the guerilla tactics it used in the past, like targeted assassinations, bombings, ambushes and raids. The group still has tens of thousands of fighters in Iraq and Syria, according to United States Army General Joseph Votel. Territory that has been liberated remains insecure, as sleeper cells take root. Since last summer the group has carried out at least 250 attacks outside its controlled territories in Syria.
ISIS attacks outside of its controlled territory
(Since July 2018)
Aleppo
Circles are
ISIS attacks
Raqqah
Deir al-Zour
Mediterranean
Sea
SYRIA
Homs
Abu Kamal
IRAQ
Damascus
Fatalities
50
10
1
No fatalities
50 miles
Dera’a
ISIS attacks outside of its controlled territory
(Since July 2018)
Aleppo
Circles are
ISIS attacks
Raqqah
Deir al-Zour
SYRIA
Homs
Abu Kamal
IRAQ
Damascus
Fatalities
50
10
1
No fatalities
50 miles
ISIS attacks outside of its controlled territory
(Since July 2018)
Circles are
ISIS attacks
Aleppo
Raqqah
Deir al-Zour
SYRIA
Homs
Abu Kamal
IRAQ
Damascus
Fatalities
50
10
1
No fatalities
50 miles
ISIS attacks outside of
its controlled territory
Aleppo
Raqqah
Deir al-Zour
SYRIA
Homs
Abu Kamal
Circles are
ISIS attacks
since July 2018
IRAQ
Damascus
Fatalities from ISIS attacks
50
10
1
No fatalities
50 miles
The shift toward hit-and-run tactics, which rely on methodical surveillance and clandestine networks to deliver targeted attacks like the one in Manbij, has allowed the group to remain effective in Syria despite its loss of territory.
“They realized you don’t have to mount 6,000 attacks per month. You just have to kill the right 50 people each month,” said Michael Knights, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
The group’s acolytes continue to carry out attacks beyond the Middle East, claiming responsibility for a Roman Catholic church bombing in the Philippines on Jan. 27 that killed at least 20 people. Since 2017, ISIS and its followers have carried out attacks in at least 25 countries.
Attacks directed by the Islamic State since 2017
U.K.
RUSSIA
AFGHANISTAN
SYRIA
CHINA
IRAQ
LIBYA
INDIA
PAKISTAN
NIGER
BANGLADESH
Nov. 24, 2017
YEMEN
PHILIPPINES
An attack on a mosque in Egypt killed more than 300 people.
Jan. 27, 2019
Two bombs exploded at a cathedral, killing more than 20 people.
INDONESIA
AUSTRALIA
Attacks directed by Islamic State since 2017
RUSSIA
U.K.
AFGHANISTAN
SYRIA
CHINA
IRAQ
LIBYA
PAKISTAN
NIGER
YEMEN
BANGLADESH
Nov. 24, 2017
PHILIPPINES
An attack on a mosque in Egypt killed more than 300 people.
Jan. 27, 2019
Two bombs exploded at a cathedral, killing more than 20 people.
INDONESIA
AUSTRALIA
Attacks directed by Islamic State since 2017
RUSSIA
U.K.
AFGHANISTAN
CHINA
SYRIA
IRAQ
LIBYA
PAKISTAN
NIGER
YEMEN
BANGLADESH
Nov. 24, 2017
PHILIPPINES
An attack on a mosque in Egypt killed more than 300 people.
Jan. 27, 2019
Two bombs exploded at a cathedral, killing more than 20 people.
INDONESIA
AUSTRALIA
Attacks directed by Islamic State since 2017
RUSSIA
U.K.
AFGHANISTAN
CHINA
SYRIA
IRAQ
LIBYA
PAKISTAN
NIGER
YEMEN
BANGLADESH
Nov. 24, 2017
PHILIPPINES
An attack on a mosque in Egypt killed more than 300 people.
Jan. 27, 2019
Two bombs exploded at a cathedral, killing more than 20 people.
INDONESIA
AUSTRALIA
Attacks directed by Islamic State
since 2017
RUSSIA
U.K.
AFGHANISTAN
SYRIA
IRAQ
PHILIPPINES
NIGER
PAKISTAN
BANGLADESH
Jan. 27, 2019
Nov. 24, 2017
An attack on a mosque in Egypt killed more than 300 people.
Two bombs exploded at a cathedral, killing more than 20 people.
Attacks directed by Islamic State since 2017
RUSSIA
U.K.
AFGHANISTAN
SYRIA
IRAQ
NIGER
PHILIPPINES
PAKISTAN
BANGLADESH
Nov. 24, 2017
Jan. 27, 2019
An attack on a mosque in Egypt killed more than 300 people.
Two bombs exploded at a cathedral, killing more than 20 people.