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Gulf States

Policy Analysis on Gulf States

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Don’t Count Out U.S. Oil Production as a Market-Shaper

Total U.S. production from all sources will remain the world’s largest no matter how low prices go, leaving Washington (and Texas) with considerable room to help domestic companies and press Riyadh and Moscow on stabilizing prices.

Patrick Clawson

Articles & Testimony

In the Saudi-Russian Oil Price War, the U.S. Blinks First

This is President Trump’s dilemma: how to safeguard America’s shale-based energy independence without making apparent concessions to Moscow.

Simon Henderson

Implications of the Saudi Corruption Arrests

The latest crackdown appears to have targeted senior defense and interior officials, spurring speculation that they are linked to previously detained princes rumored to be plotting a coup.

Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

Russia and Saudis in a Knife Fight Over Oil—But We May Be the Victims

The duration and effects of the showdown may come down to price fluctuations and budgetary requirements in Moscow and Riyadh, but the U.S. shale industry will likely suffer either way.

Simon Henderson

Making Sense of the Saudi Rumors: A Guide to Royal Family Politics

Reports of royal arrests, a possible coup plot, and a brewing oil price war suggest that the kingdom is facing another period of considerable political tension.

Simon Henderson

Escalating Houthi Offensives in Yemen: U.S. Options

To keep recent rebel victories from cascading into a wider military collapse, Washington must urge the Gulf coalition to firm up the government’s forces and move more quickly on peace talks.

Alex Almeida
Michael Knights

IAEA Reports Renew Questions About Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions

U.S. officials have ample grounds to reinvigorate diplomatic pressure after the world’s nuclear watchdog accused Iran of being uncooperative, but they need to focus on the right questions.

Simon Henderson

Sacked Saudi Energy Minister Returns to Cabinet

Khalid al-Falih’s appointment to a new investment role suggests that the kingdom’s Vision 2030 economic transformation project needs to be reinvigorated.

Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

The Middle East’s Future of Perpetual Pandemics

If outbreaks like the coronavirus shift from ‘black swan’ events to regular occurrences, globalization trends in the region may reverse, with sobering consequences.

Michael Knights

Challenges Await Oman’s New Sultan as Mourning Period Ends

Sultan Haitham will now be free to put his own stamp on the country's government and foreign policy, and a recent dust-up on the Yemeni border could provide the first indicator of his approach.

Elana DeLozier

Arab, Iranian, and Turkish Responses to President Trump’s Impeachment

A survey of how regional media outlets discussed the congressional impeachment process and its potential ramifications on the 2020 presidential election.

U.S. soldiers at an Iraqi base after a rocket attack by Iran-backed militias

U.S. Strategy Toward Iran: Restoring Deterrence, Enabling Diplomacy

Three experts discuss how Washington can manage escalation and catalyze diplomacy while still using its military instruments to apply pressure.

Michael Eisenstadt
Kori Schake
David Deptula

Death of AQAP Leader Shows the Group’s Fragmentation—and Durability

Although the Yemeni terrorist franchise has splintered and weakened in recent years, its fragments may be adapting to new conflict conditions, raising the risk of a comeback.

Elisabeth Kendall

The UN Exposes Houthi Reliance on Iranian Weapons

In addition to dispelling any lingering notion that last year’s Aramco attack came from Yemen, the report documents Iran’s efforts to help the rebels acquire advanced missiles, weapons components, and training.

Farzin Nadimi

UN Panel Highlights Command-and-Control Issues in Yemen

The latest Panel of Experts report shines a much-needed light on operational control issues that will likely complicate postwar efforts to unify the country’s sundry armed forces.

Elana DeLozier

Articles & Testimony

Trump Peace Plan Attracts Some Gulf States, But Not Consensus Backing

Bahrain, Oman, and the UAE have evidently decided that good relations with the White House are more important than echoing Palestinian anger or appeasing Iran.

Simon Henderson

Expediting Evidence of Iranian Attacks: The Aramco Case

Internal components that are common across Iran’s illicit weapons transfers and domestic manufacturing industry can help investigators link the regime to attacks in the region.

Tim Michetti

Making the Most of the Berlin Conference on Libya

If the latest conference is to succeed, the principal actors stoking the civil war must endorse a genuine ceasefire and a return to Libyan internal dialogue.

Ben Fishman

Articles & Testimony

Death of a Sultan: Oman Matters, So Why Such a Slow U.S. Response?

Regional players will likely be testing Muscat in the next few months, so Washington needs to help ensure continuity between reigns.

Simon Henderson

Ceasefire or Escalation in Libya?

After the fall of Sirte, Erdogan and Putin’s desired ceasefire can only be achieved with Washington’s support.

Ben Fishman

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