Gulf States

Bahrain, Oman, and the UAE have evidently decided that good relations with the White House are more important than echoing Palestinian anger or appeasing Iran.

If the latest conference is to succeed, the principal actors stoking the civil war must endorse a genuine ceasefire and a return to Libyan internal dialogue.

After the fall of Sirte, Erdogan and Putin’s desired ceasefire can only be achieved with Washington’s support.

If the United States signals its readiness to do more militarily while also considering compromise, it could spur other governments to apply more effective collective pressure on Tehran.

The Gulf nation of Oman has been ruled by Sultan Qaboos since 1970, when he overthrew his own father. The seventy-nine-year-old leader has enjoyed wide popularity, but he has a history of illness. To ensure national stability and continued progress, his successor will have to enact far-reaching economic reforms, aimed especially at broadening the economy beyond its current oil dependence. At the same time, a new sultan will need to navigate challenges posed by powerful neighbors such as Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.

Facing pressure from General Haftar and his foreign military backers, the Tripoli government has welcomed the helping hand extended by Ankara, whose own lack of regional options has drawn it into the middle of another conflict.

Since a maximum pressure policy requires maximum deterrence, the president should avoid tweets and actions that undercut U.S. credibility regarding the use of force, while authorizing the requisite rules of engagement.

Given the potential for sideline progress toward healing the rift and refocusing on Iran, this year’s diplomatic theater will be more closely watched than usual.

Amid Saudi stock sell-offs, Russian production limits, U.S. tariff showdowns, and a flurry of other factors, the potential impact of the cartel’s Vienna meetings is difficult to predict.