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Gulf States

Policy Analysis on Gulf States

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Articles & Testimony
Death of a Sultan: Oman Matters, So Why Such a Slow U.S. Response?
Regional players will likely be testing Muscat in the next few months, so Washington needs to help ensure continuity between reigns.
Jan 14, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Ceasefire or Escalation in Libya?
After the fall of Sirte, Erdogan and Putin’s desired ceasefire can only be achieved with Washington’s support.
Jan 10, 2020
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  • Ben Fishman
Brief Analysis
Eight Reasons Why the United States and Iraq Still Need Each Other
A host of crucial multilateral interests are baked into the U.S. presence, from keeping the Islamic State down, to protecting vulnerable regional allies, to preventing Iran from taking Iraq's oil revenues.
Jan 9, 2020
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  • David Pollock
Articles & Testimony
Fears of 'What's Next?' Will Influence Iran's—and the World's—Reactions
If the United States signals its readiness to do more militarily while also considering compromise, it could spur other governments to apply more effective collective pressure on Tehran.
Jan 6, 2020
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  • Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Iran May Want Revenge for Soleimani, But It May Need Restraint Instead
The incident might convince Khamenei and his advisors that their meddling in the Middle East is jeopardizing the regime’s domestic stability.
Jan 4, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Oman After Qaboos: A National and Regional Void Sudden Succession Essay Series
Sudden Succession Essay Series
The Gulf nation of Oman has been ruled by Sultan Qaboos since 1970, when he overthrew his own father. The seventy-nine-year-old leader has enjoyed wide popularity, but he has a history of illness. To ensure national stability and continued progress, his successor will have to enact far-reaching economic reforms, aimed especially at broadening the economy beyond its current oil dependence. At the same time, a new sultan will need to navigate challenges posed by powerful neighbors such as Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
Dec 30, 2019
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Saudi Sentences in Khashoggi Murder Will Again Test U.S. Relations
The challenge for the kingdom’s Western allies is how to square Riyadh’s announcement with the CIA and UN conclusion that the crown prince himself sanctioned the crime.
Dec 23, 2019
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Turkey Pivots to Tripoli: Implications for Libya’s Civil War and U.S. Policy
Facing pressure from General Haftar and his foreign military backers, the Tripoli government has welcomed the helping hand extended by Ankara, whose own lack of regional options has drawn it into the middle of another conflict.
Dec 19, 2019
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  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Ben Fishman
Articles & Testimony
GCC Security Issues, as Their Publics See Them: A Rare Look at Real Data
Polling results from five Gulf countries show where citizens and their leaders converge and diverge on Iran, U.S. relations, and other crucial foreign policy matters.
Dec 12, 2019
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  • David Pollock
Brief Analysis
Deterring Iran’s Next Attack
Since a maximum pressure policy requires maximum deterrence, the president should avoid tweets and actions that undercut U.S. credibility regarding the use of force, while authorizing the requisite rules of engagement.
Dec 11, 2019
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
A Caretaker President Clings to Legitimacy in Yemen Sudden Succession Essay Series
Sudden Succession Essay Series
In 2012, during a moment of national and regional consensus, the reserved, nonthreatening Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi was chosen as temporary president of Yemen. But Hadi, now seventy-four years old, has held onto power ever since, despite lacking a large base of domestic loyalists. Most important for the Yemeni people, the war needs to end with either a transitional council or elections so that a future leader enjoys the popular legitimacy Hadi lacks.
Dec 10, 2019
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  • Elana DeLozier
Brief Analysis
Qatar Rift Overshadows Riyadh Summit
Given the potential for sideline progress toward healing the rift and refocusing on Iran, this year’s diplomatic theater will be more closely watched than usual.
Dec 9, 2019
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
What Will It Take to Repair Middle Eastern Economies?
Directly investing in nongovernmental enterprise and giving international approval to private competition can change the dynamic in individual countries, promote liberal economies, and give citizens greater agency.
Dec 8, 2019
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  • Bilal Wahab
Articles & Testimony
OPEC Meetings May Provide Economic Answers—or Just More Questions
Amid Saudi stock sell-offs, Russian production limits, U.S. tariff showdowns, and a flurry of other factors, the potential impact of the cartel’s Vienna meetings is difficult to predict.
Dec 4, 2019
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
The IRGC States Its Case for Escalation Against the United States, Britain, and Saudi Arabia
As its concerns about domestic dissent and Western naval activity grow, Tehran may once again try to divert attention from the unrest at home by launching attacks abroad.
Nov 26, 2019
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Bahrain After the Prime Minister Sudden Succession Essay Series
Sudden Succession Essay Series
Bahrain’s prime minister, Sheikh Khalifa bin Salman al-Khalifa, has held his position since 1971, the year his country gained independence from Britain, but he is now eighty-four and evidently in uncertain health. Potential candidates to replace him include Crown Prince Salman or even a much younger nephew, Nasser bin Hamad, mirroring the generational handover in Qatar and Saudi Arabia. But the Khawalids, an influential, once-sidelined branch of the ruling family, also merit attention as Bahrain nears the end of an era.
Nov 26, 2019
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  • Simon Henderson
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Course Correction: The Muslim World League, Saudi Arabia's Export of Islam, and Opportunities for Washington
Throughout 2016 and 2017, statements from Riyadh suggested that Saudi Arabia might be on the verge of reorienting its decades-long promotion of Salafism around the world. Given the sheer scale of the kingdom’s support for Islamic institutions over the years, the ripple effects of such a shift would be profound
Nov 22, 2019
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  • Sarah Feuer
Brief Analysis
Riyadh Agreement Delivers Political Gains in Yemen, But Implementation Less Certain
The new agreement will score a win if it brings the most important players to the table for wider talks, but implementing its often-vague provisions so quickly will prove challenging.
Nov 5, 2019
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  • Elana DeLozier
Brief Analysis
Understanding the Saudi Aramco IPO
The long-anticipated stock selloff has finally been green-lit, but doubts remain about just how much it will help to economically transform the kingdom.
Nov 4, 2019
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
The U.S.: Between Being the World’s Policeman and Trusting Regional Partners
Despite long-documented public weariness with Middle East conflicts, Trump’s successor could well recognize the value of reestablishing American credibility in the region.
Oct 28, 2019
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  • Dennis Ross

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