Gulf States

Growing tensions between the two allies have both Islamic and nuclear angles.

The UAE’s deal with Israel may render Egypt a junior partner in future peace diplomacy, aggravating its existing frustration over years of financial dependence on the small Gulf state and a string of foreign policy setbacks.

Some Gulf governments have welcomed the paradigm-changing Israel-UAE agreement while others have not, and those who follow Abu Dhabi’s path will do so based on their own interests and timetables.

Statements and actions by Israel and the UAE show how much regional decisionmaking is still shaped by U.S. assurances that enable parties to calibrate their cost-benefit analyses—an approach that could serve as a template for potential future Israel-Gulf ties.

Emirati leaders apparently understood that this move would preserve the two-state option and preempt Iran from exploiting the annexation issue—while also opening access to previously off-limits U.S. weaponry.

Coming soon after Western naval redeployments in the Gulf and explosions at sensitive Iranian sites, the recent drills illustrate the regime’s eagerness to reassert its deterrence by showing off new weapons and capabilities.

Given the dilemmas involved in retaliating for recent acts of sabotage and the death of Qasem Soleimani, Iran will likely defer any substantial military action against U.S. targets until shortly before or after the November election.

Reactivating the 2019 accord is a promising step that could ease tensions in south Yemen and advance wider national negotiations, but only if coalition members are able to put its detailed requirements into effect.

As Riyadh aims to revamp the kingdom’s place in the international community, its near-term approach to Iran and Israel will have much to say about the Gulf neighborhood’s future trajectory.