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Gulf States

Policy Analysis on Gulf States

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Articles & Testimony

High Prices, Winter Shortages Delay Arrival of Post-Fossil Fuel World

The long timeframes and commercial calculations involved in such a transition have left Washington and other capitals more reliant on OPEC+ decisionmaking than they would like.

Simon Henderson

U.S., Israeli, Bahraini, and Qatari flags on a mural celebrating the Abraham Accords

Articles & Testimony

Think Regionally: A US Role for Deepening the Abraham Accords

Washington should look to economic forums in other regions as a model for establishing regular cooperation between Arab and Israeli officials, business leaders, academics, and civil society groups.

David Makovsky
Josh Kram

Qatar’s Council Election Has Gulf-Wide Implications

The long-delayed poll will be watched carefully by the country’s neighbors, though the sundry restrictions on voters and council members may limit its near-term policy impact.

Simon Henderson

Tweet Signals Major Upgrade in Relations Between U.S. Gulf Allies

Yet the photo of an informal meeting among the Saudi, Qatari, and UAE leaders also suggests their uncertainty about American support.

Simon Henderson

UAE-Israel Gas Deal (Finally) Finalized

Given ongoing environmental concerns over energy cooperation, the chances that the two partners will fully realize their commercial potential are still up in the air.

Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

What’s Behind Biden’s Not-So-Green Request for More Oil?

The announcement raises several awkward geopolitical questions, but market factors may ultimately make U.S. pressure moot.

Simon Henderson

Vice President Joe Biden arrives in Saudi Arabia

Articles & Testimony

Biden Needs a Middle East Strategy to Avoid New Crises

To dispel confusion among America’s partners and better counter its adversaries, the administration will have to do a better job of integrating its country-specific strategies into an overarching approach for accomplishing larger goals.

Kenneth Pollack
Dennis Ross

Iranian sailors on board a naval vessel in the Strait of Hormuz

Iran-Israel Escalation at Sea: The Need for an International Coalition Response

Lethal targeting and other signs of escalation point to the necessity of a robust international maritime security force with a strong UN mandate.

Farzin Nadimi

Iranian military drone aircraft on display.

Articles & Testimony

What’s Worse for the Price of Oil—a Belligerent Iran or a Resurgent COVID?

The latest price lurch was rooted in the pandemic’s impact on China’s economy, not the apparent Iranian strike on an Israeli tanker.

Simon Henderson

An oil pipeline terminal jetty in Eilat, Israel

Israel-UAE Pipeline Deal Delayed by Environmental Concerns

A bureaucratic skirmish in Naftali Bennett’s coalition government could impede Jerusalem’s growing ties with Abu Dhabi.

Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

OPEC Will Boost Oil Output—But Don't Expect Lower Prices at the Pump

Although more supplies will be coming to market, the economic impact of this decision will depend on issues of timing, royal rapprochement, and new COVID surges.

Simon Henderson

Managing Middle East Defense Partnerships Amid Great Power Competition

The U.S. government can counter the narrative of withdrawal by disassociating its regional commitment from the number of “boots on the ground,” building longer-term security cooperation plans, and clarifying its CAATSA sanctions policy.

Grant Rumley
Kathryn Wheelbarger

Articles & Testimony

Expect Political Consequences from Higher Oil Prices During the Summer Driving Season

Gulf squabbles over production quotas highlight the industry’s uncertain future, but in the meantime Washington may have to deal with heightened pressure at home.

Simon Henderson

Saudi Arabia's Prince Khalid bin Salman meets with U.S. military officials in 2018.

Saudi Visit to Washington Will Have a Thorny Agenda

Hosting Prince Khalid is a good look for the bilateral relationship, but discussions may prove difficult given complications over defense sales, Israeli normalization, OPEC infighting, and continued fallout over the Khashoggi affair.

Simon Henderson

Mohajer drone

Maps & Graphics

Militias Parade Under the PMF Banner (Part 1): Drone Systems

Drone systems paraded in Camp Ashraf were a show of strength, including the debut of new types of Iranian-provided airframes and control vehicles.

Farzin Nadimi
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Uneasy State of Play Awaits New UN Envoy in Yemen

The next envoy will be asked to find a quick path to peace where no obvious one exists, armed with little leverage for budging the emboldened and well-positioned Houthis.

Elana DeLozier

Articles & Testimony

The Worst of COVID-19 May Be Over, But It’s Still a Factor in the Price of Oil

The issue will likely dominate discussions at the next OPEC+ meeting, but the longer-term economic and geopolitical repercussions are trickier to gauge.

Simon Henderson

Figure 1: Rocket and drone attacks on coalition "points of presence".

Maps & Graphics

Iraq’s Drone and Rocket Epidemic, By the Numbers

Attacks on coalition points of presence are increasing in quantity and quality, making U.S. fatalities increasingly likely unless deterrence is restored.

Michael Knights
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Anti-Normalization Laws: A Powerful Weapon in the Fight Against Peace

A panel of experts discuss Hezbollah’s efforts to neutralize the Abraham Accords by threatening and prosecuting Lebanese citizens who interact with Israelis, including expatriates living or working in Gulf countries.

Nadim Koteich
Majd Harb
Hanin Ghaddar
Joseph Braude

Making Libya’s Berlin Process Work

To break the political deadlock, begin the withdrawal of disruptive foreign forces, and deploy ceasefire monitors, U.S. officials will need to hold some hard conversations with the UN envoy and all of the international and local actors on the ground.

Ben Fishman
Anas El Gomati

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