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Gulf States

Policy Analysis on Gulf States

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Articles & Testimony
High Prices, Winter Shortages Delay Arrival of Post-Fossil Fuel World
The long timeframes and commercial calculations involved in such a transition have left Washington and other capitals more reliant on OPEC+ decisionmaking than they would like.
Oct 6, 2021
◆
  • Simon Henderson
U.S., Israeli, Bahraini, and Qatari flags on a mural celebrating the Abraham Accords
Articles & Testimony
Think Regionally: A US Role for Deepening the Abraham Accords
Washington should look to economic forums in other regions as a model for establishing regular cooperation between Arab and Israeli officials, business leaders, academics, and civil society groups.
Oct 3, 2021
◆
  • David Makovsky
  • Josh Kram
Brief Analysis
Qatar’s Council Election Has Gulf-Wide Implications
The long-delayed poll will be watched carefully by the country’s neighbors, though the sundry restrictions on voters and council members may limit its near-term policy impact.
Sep 30, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Tweet Signals Major Upgrade in Relations Between U.S. Gulf Allies
Yet the photo of an informal meeting among the Saudi, Qatari, and UAE leaders also suggests their uncertainty about American support.
Sep 20, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
UAE-Israel Gas Deal (Finally) Finalized
Given ongoing environmental concerns over energy cooperation, the chances that the two partners will fully realize their commercial potential are still up in the air.
Sep 3, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
What’s Behind Biden’s Not-So-Green Request for More Oil?
The announcement raises several awkward geopolitical questions, but market factors may ultimately make U.S. pressure moot.
Aug 12, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson
Vice President Joe Biden arrives in Saudi Arabia
Articles & Testimony
Biden Needs a Middle East Strategy to Avoid New Crises
To dispel confusion among America’s partners and better counter its adversaries, the administration will have to do a better job of integrating its country-specific strategies into an overarching approach for accomplishing larger goals.
Aug 10, 2021
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  • Kenneth Pollack
  • Dennis Ross
Iranian sailors on board a naval vessel in the Strait of Hormuz
Brief Analysis
Iran-Israel Escalation at Sea: The Need for an International Coalition Response
Lethal targeting and other signs of escalation point to the necessity of a robust international maritime security force with a strong UN mandate.
Aug 9, 2021
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Iranian military drone aircraft on display.
Articles & Testimony
What’s Worse for the Price of Oil—a Belligerent Iran or a Resurgent COVID?
The latest price lurch was rooted in the pandemic’s impact on China’s economy, not the apparent Iranian strike on an Israeli tanker.
Aug 2, 2021
◆
  • Simon Henderson
An oil pipeline terminal jetty in Eilat, Israel
Brief Analysis
Israel-UAE Pipeline Deal Delayed by Environmental Concerns
A bureaucratic skirmish in Naftali Bennett’s coalition government could impede Jerusalem’s growing ties with Abu Dhabi.
Jul 26, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
OPEC Will Boost Oil Output—But Don't Expect Lower Prices at the Pump
Although more supplies will be coming to market, the economic impact of this decision will depend on issues of timing, royal rapprochement, and new COVID surges.
Jul 19, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Managing Middle East Defense Partnerships Amid Great Power Competition
The U.S. government can counter the narrative of withdrawal by disassociating its regional commitment from the number of “boots on the ground,” building longer-term security cooperation plans, and clarifying its CAATSA sanctions policy.
Jul 13, 2021
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  • Grant Rumley
  • Kathryn Wheelbarger
Articles & Testimony
Expect Political Consequences from Higher Oil Prices During the Summer Driving Season
Gulf squabbles over production quotas highlight the industry’s uncertain future, but in the meantime Washington may have to deal with heightened pressure at home.
Jul 8, 2021
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Saudi Arabia's Prince Khalid bin Salman meets with U.S. military officials in 2018.
Brief Analysis
Saudi Visit to Washington Will Have a Thorny Agenda
Hosting Prince Khalid is a good look for the bilateral relationship, but discussions may prove difficult given complications over defense sales, Israeli normalization, OPEC infighting, and continued fallout over the Khashoggi affair.
Jul 6, 2021
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Mohajer drone
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militias Parade Under the PMF Banner (Part 1): Drone Systems
Drone systems paraded in Camp Ashraf were a show of strength, including the debut of new types of Iranian-provided airframes and control vehicles.
Jul 3, 2021
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  • Farzin Nadimi
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Uneasy State of Play Awaits New UN Envoy in Yemen
The next envoy will be asked to find a quick path to peace where no obvious one exists, armed with little leverage for budging the emboldened and well-positioned Houthis.
Jul 1, 2021
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  • Elana DeLozier
Articles & Testimony
The Worst of COVID-19 May Be Over, But It’s Still a Factor in the Price of Oil
The issue will likely dominate discussions at the next OPEC+ meeting, but the longer-term economic and geopolitical repercussions are trickier to gauge.
Jun 30, 2021
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Figure 1: Rocket and drone attacks on coalition "points of presence".
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraq’s Drone and Rocket Epidemic, By the Numbers
Attacks on coalition points of presence are increasing in quantity and quality, making U.S. fatalities increasingly likely unless deterrence is restored.
Jun 27, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Video
Brief Analysis
Anti-Normalization Laws: A Powerful Weapon in the Fight Against Peace
A panel of experts discuss Hezbollah’s efforts to neutralize the Abraham Accords by threatening and prosecuting Lebanese citizens who interact with Israelis, including expatriates living or working in Gulf countries.
Jun 24, 2021
◆
  • Nadim Koteich
  • Majd Harb
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Joseph Braude
Brief Analysis
Making Libya’s Berlin Process Work
To break the political deadlock, begin the withdrawal of disruptive foreign forces, and deploy ceasefire monitors, U.S. officials will need to hold some hard conversations with the UN envoy and all of the international and local actors on the ground.
Jun 21, 2021
◆
  • Ben Fishman
  • Anas El Gomati

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