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Gulf and Energy Policy

Policy Analysis on Gulf and Energy Policy

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Brief Analysis
Iran Applies Maximum Power to Annual IRGC Naval Exercise
Coming soon after Western naval redeployments in the Gulf and explosions at sensitive Iranian sites, the recent drills illustrate the regime’s eagerness to reassert its deterrence by showing off new weapons and capabilities.
Aug 10, 2020
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Articles & Testimony
Is China Helping Saudi Arabia to Build a Nuclear Bomb?
Riyadh has now ticked the first two boxes on the enrichment checklist and might already be working on the others.
Aug 5, 2020
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
How Might Iran Respond to Foreign Sabotage?
Given the dilemmas involved in retaliating for recent acts of sabotage and the death of Qasem Soleimani, Iran will likely defer any substantial military action against U.S. targets until shortly before or after the November election.
Aug 4, 2020
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Riyadh Agreement Redux: Political Gains Still Dogged by Implementation Concerns
Reactivating the 2019 accord is a promising step that could ease tensions in south Yemen and advance wider national negotiations, but only if coalition members are able to put its detailed requirements into effect.
Jul 30, 2020
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  • Elana DeLozier
  • Zied Bouchlaghem
Articles & Testimony
Shifting Sands in the House of Saud with a King’s Declining Health
King Salman may not be on his deathbed, but his son is renowned for not wanting to waste an opportunity.
Jul 21, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States Under Stress
As Riyadh aims to revamp the kingdom’s place in the international community, its near-term approach to Iran and Israel will have much to say about the Gulf neighborhood’s future trajectory.
Jul 15, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Qatar Without Tamim Sudden Succession Essay Series
Sudden Succession Essay Series
Qatar's break with Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors remains unresolved, and rumors circulate of bids to replace Tamim bin Khalifa al-Thani, Qatar’s forty-year-old emir, with one of his historically marginalized rivals.
Jun 15, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Video
Brief Analysis
Middle East Mega-Trends, COVID-19, and Beyond: Views from France
A French diplomat and a leading scholar of Islam explore the region’s crises and their effects on Western policy, assessing what has changed since the Arab Spring.
Jun 12, 2020
◆
  • Gilles Kepel
  • Charles Thépaut
Articles & Testimony
You May Pay More at the Pump, as OPEC+ Cuts Oil Production
The cartel’s latest bid to increase profits will likely be counterbalanced by depressed summer demand and increased output by other producers.
Jun 8, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Khashoggi’s Family Forgives His Killers, But Will the World Forget the Saudi Scandal?
Whether continued campaigns to hold Riyadh accountable for the crime succeed or not, the crown prince’s economic ‘Vision’ is increasingly likely to slip by another decade or more.
May 23, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Rethinking U.S. Policy Toward the Fractured GCC
Genuinely resolving the various entrenched disputes between GCC states is unlikely, so Washington should focus instead on managing relations with them bilaterally while still maximizing regional security.
May 12, 2020
◆
  • Nabeel Nowairah
Articles & Testimony
Has Trump Finally Lost Patience with the Saudis?
Whatever combination of factors spurred the latest withdrawal of U.S. military equipment from the kingdom, the administration is tempting fate given Iran’s ongoing challenges and shifting tactics in the Gulf.
May 8, 2020
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Video
Brief Analysis
Arab Health Officials Discuss Fighting COVID-19
Three senior officials from Iraq, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia share a behind-the-scenes look at each country’s efforts to contain the pandemic.
Apr 30, 2020
◆
  • Jaafar Allawi
  • Saad Jaber
  • Abdullah Algwizani
Brief Analysis
Saudi Leverage Not Enough to Achieve Peace in Yemen
Riyadh’s negotiation efforts in Yemen’s north and south have faltered, raising questions about its ability to single-handedly shepherd the country toward peace.
Apr 29, 2020
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  • Elana DeLozier
Articles & Testimony
Saudi Prince’s Vision Marred by Oil Price—and a Death
The combo of local opposition to a high-tech urbanization project and oil market volatility has cast a shadow over Riyadh’s long-term economic plans.
Apr 29, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Iran's Evolving Approach to Asymmetric Naval Warfare: Strategy and Capabilities in the Persian Gulf
In an April 22 tweet, President Trump spoke of instructing the U.S. Navy to destroy any Iranian gunboats that "harass our ships at sea." Aside from whether it departed from existing U.S. rules of engagement, the statement highlighted a persistent reality: the military threat posed by Iranian forces in the
Apr 24, 2020
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran Gets Aggressive in the Northern Gulf Following U.S. Military Exercises
Recent joint drills by the U.S. Navy, Army, and Air Force have essentially challenged Tehran to a game of contested deterrence, spurring its forces to respond with swarm maneuvers and a vessel seizure.
Apr 21, 2020
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Articles & Testimony
Will Crashing Oil Prices Put American Energy in Its Coffin?
The prospect of a full shale collapse has spurred politicians and oil companies to raise furious questions about the future of U.S. economic and military cooperation with Saudi Arabia.
Apr 21, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
‘Legitimacy’ Protecting Yemen’s President Complicates Process of Replacing Him
Finding an acceptable process to install a new transitional leader is hard; finding a person with the requisite legitimacy to play that role may be harder still.
Apr 15, 2020
◆
  • Elana DeLozier
Articles & Testimony
Will the OPEC Agreement Work and, If So, How Long Will It Last?
The market appears to doubt that the deal will suffice, and royal family dynamics could push the oil crisis into further rounds.
Apr 13, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson

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