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Energy and Economics

Policy Analysis on Energy and Economics

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Brief Analysis
Don’t Count Out U.S. Oil Production as a Market-Shaper
Total U.S. production from all sources will remain the world’s largest no matter how low prices go, leaving Washington (and Texas) with considerable room to help domestic companies and press Riyadh and Moscow on stabilizing prices.
Mar 20, 2020
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  • Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
In the Saudi-Russian Oil Price War, the U.S. Blinks First
This is President Trump’s dilemma: how to safeguard America’s shale-based energy independence without making apparent concessions to Moscow.
Mar 20, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Giving Iraq’s Next Prime Minister Space to Succeed
As the next well-qualified, Iraqi-chosen candidate navigates the delicate ratification process, Washington can avoid disrupting his efforts by temporarily ignoring militia provocations and providing quiet, symbolic support where needed.
Mar 17, 2020
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Implications of the Saudi Corruption Arrests
The latest crackdown appears to have targeted senior defense and interior officials, spurring speculation that they are linked to previously detained princes rumored to be plotting a coup.
Mar 16, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Iraq’s Health, Financial, and Security Crises Sharpen the Urgency of Forming a Government
Allawi’s cabinet failure may indicate growing Iraqi agency at Iran’s expense, but the path toward political stability remains tortuous and foggy.
Mar 13, 2020
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  • Bilal Wahab
Articles & Testimony
Russia and Saudis in a Knife Fight Over Oil—But We May Be the Victims
The duration and effects of the showdown may come down to price fluctuations and budgetary requirements in Moscow and Riyadh, but the U.S. shale industry will likely suffer either way.
Mar 10, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Making Sense of the Saudi Rumors: A Guide to Royal Family Politics
Reports of royal arrests, a possible coup plot, and a brewing oil price war suggest that the kingdom is facing another period of considerable political tension.
Mar 9, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
The Shia vs. the ‘Shia Crescent’
Whether by force or politics, Iran desperately needs to reconsolidate power among Shia constituencies throughout the region, but this challenge may prove insurmountable given current public sentiment in Iraq and Lebanon.
Mar 5, 2020
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  • Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah Has a New Strategy to Survive Lebanon’s Financial Crisis
Unless Washington and its allies respond to the protestors’ legitimate demands for reform, the group will survive through measures such as expanding its smuggling activity, promoting its financial institutions, and selectively scapegoating corrupt politicians.
Mar 2, 2020
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  • Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
Sacked Saudi Energy Minister Returns to Cabinet
Khalid al-Falih’s appointment to a new investment role suggests that the kingdom’s Vision 2030 economic transformation project needs to be reinvigorated.
Feb 26, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
The Middle East’s Future of Perpetual Pandemics
If outbreaks like the coronavirus shift from ‘black swan’ events to regular occurrences, globalization trends in the region may reverse, with sobering consequences.
Feb 26, 2020
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
FATF’s Approach to Iran Should Mix Engagement with Pressure
Although it is time for the international standard-setter to act, returning Iran to the blacklist need not be seen as the end of FATF engagement with the country.
Feb 18, 2020
◆
  • Katherine Bauer
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Latest Battle for Idlib Could Send Another Wave of Refugees to Europe
Various displacement scenarios may unfold as the fighting escalates, each carrying a high risk of negative humanitarian and economic consequences even if the parties live up to their promises.
Feb 10, 2020
◆
  • Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
Continuity vs. Overreach in the Trump Peace Plan (Part 2): Security, Refugees, and Narratives
By granting Israel much more say over the sovereignty of a future Palestinian state and its ability to absorb refugees, the document may undermine the administration’s ability to build an international coalition behind its policies.
Feb 4, 2020
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  • Ghaith al-Omari
Brief Analysis
Syria’s Economic Crisis Sparks Rare Protests in Regime Territory
Besides highlighting Assad’s financial mismanagement, the recent unrest gives the international community a genuine opportunity to push for transition while bolstering the more prosperous local administration in the northeast.
Jan 31, 2020
◆
  • Oula A. Alrifai
Articles & Testimony
Here’s How the U.S. Can Pressure Lebanon’s New Government to Tackle Corruption
Designating corrupt businessmen and officials under the Global Magnitsky Act would offer a tangible response to the persistent anti-sectarian demands of Lebanese protesters.
Jan 26, 2020
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  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Matthew Levitt
Russian president Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov
Brief Analysis
Russia’s Growing Interests in Libya
As in other conflict zones, Moscow cares little about reaching a peace deal so long as it can outmaneuver the West strategically while securing port and energy access—with private contractors playing an increasingly important role.
Jan 24, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
U.S. Do’s and Don’ts in Iraq
To ensure that new protests, new sanctions, and new political leadership wind up helping rather than hindering Iraqi sovereignty, Washington must handle upcoming developments with great care.
Jan 23, 2020
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Behind Rouhani’s Uranium Enrichment Claim
His troubling numbers could be accurate given Iran’s past JCPOA violations and large number of operational centrifuges.
Jan 17, 2020
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  • Elana DeLozier
Brief Analysis
Ceasefire or Escalation in Libya?
After the fall of Sirte, Erdogan and Putin’s desired ceasefire can only be achieved with Washington’s support.
Jan 10, 2020
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  • Ben Fishman

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