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All Policy Analysis by Farzin Nadimi
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Brief Analysis
Iran Keeps a Lid on Its Latest 'Great Prophet' Exercise
The restrained nature of this month's military demonstration could signal a combination of dynamics in Tehran: a reaction to the Trump administration's arrival, a shift in the regime's threat assessments, or continued internal political maneuvering.
Feb 28, 2017
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran's Latest Missile Test: Scenarios and Implications for the New Administration
Regardless of how the details surrounding Sunday's launch shake out, it was an unhelpful move at a time when the Trump administration is determining its policy toward Iran's missile program and broader regional behavior.
Feb 3, 2017
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran Appoints Seasoned Qods Force Operative as Ambassador to Iraq
General Masjedi reportedly has a long track record of overseeing deadly anticoalition operations and making threatening statements against Israel and other U.S. allies, so his appointment to the embassy in Baghdad is highly troubling.
Jan 18, 2017
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
The Counterintuitive Role of Air Defense in Iran's Anti-Status Quo Regional Strategy
While Iran's air defenses are a central element of its deterrent capabilities, newly arrived long-range mobile systems like the S-300 could also enable it to constrain the air forces of its neighbors over their own sovereign territory, thereby enhancing Tehran's ability to intimidate and coerce these neighbors.
Jan 11, 2017
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran's Basij Mull a Wider Domestic and Regional Role
In addition to expanding and professionalizing their traditional roles at home, Basij paramilitary forces are poised to assume a larger share of the fighting in Syria alongside Iran's foreign militia proxies.
Dec 20, 2016
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran and China Are Strengthening Their Military Ties
Amid uncertainties about the incoming U.S. administration's approach to the Middle East and the nuclear deal, Tehran and Beijing appear to be entering a new era in their strategic partnership, including the potential transfer of advanced weapon systems down the road.
Nov 22, 2016
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
How Iran's Involvement in Yemen Could Draw America into the War
Along with Iran's heightened anti-American rhetoric and local naval deployments, the recent Houthi missile attacks against U.S. vessels raise fears that Tehran's clients may take the war into a new and more dangerous phase.
Oct 17, 2016
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Is Iran's Recent Muscle Flexing More Than the Usual Show of Force?
Tehran continues to boast about military capabilities that bolster deterrence, but ambiguities in its definition of national interests raise concerns about how it will wield its new offensive weapons and increasingly assertive policies.
Oct 7, 2016
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran Shows Off Its Bounty of Crashed Drones and New UAVs
The IRGC has sought to prove the resilience and technological prowess of its new UAVs by displaying them next to recovered models from other countries, but it may also be trying to mask key shortcomings.
Oct 4, 2016
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran's Aggressive Naval Intercepts Serve Foreign and Domestic Purposes
The IRGC will likely continue using such incidents as a way to signal its domestic rivals, justify its large budget, and meet other goals, so Washington should remain vigilant and consider seeking an official channel for emergency communications.
Aug 26, 2016
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran's Afghan and Pakistani Proxies: In Syria and Beyond?
As part of its renewed effort to export the Islamic Revolution through armed proxies, Tehran has been recruiting and training Afghan and Pakistani fighters for Syria's battlefields, thereby giving them invaluable experience for potential future campaigns in other regional countries.
Aug 22, 2016
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Russia Uses an Iranian Air Base: Two Essays
Two Iran experts discuss the political and military implications of Tehran's unprecedented decision to allow Russian airstrikes from its territory.
Aug 17, 2016
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Mehdi Khalaji
Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Who Is Iran's New Armed Forces Chief of Staff?
The appointment of one of the IRGC's youngest generals can be seen as a sign of the Guards' growing primacy in future Iranian military thinking, and perhaps an urgent push toward improving interoperability between often-competing armed services.
Jul 5, 2016
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran's Air Force Overshadowed by the IRGC
A recent crash highlights the air force's struggles to maintain its readiness and budget at a time when Revolutionary Guard leaders are pushing for a deterrence posture based solely on their own ballistic missile arsenal.
May 27, 2016
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Russian S-300 Deliveries to Iran Have Apparently Begun
New evidence indicates that components of the old but potent missile system have made their way to Tehran, though the scope and timing of their contribution to Iran's air-defense capabilities remain uncertain.
Apr 13, 2016
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran's Army Suffers Its First Casualties in Syria
Elements of the national army have officially joined the IRGC on Syria's battlefields, but Tehran's apparent public-relations strategy could backfire at home if casualties mount.
Apr 12, 2016
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran and Russia's Growing Defense Ties
The lifting of international sanctions and the region's vastly changing geopolitical environment have opened a window of opportunity for Tehran to buy potent arms from Russia and modernize its arsenal.
Feb 18, 2016
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran Once Again Captures Western Sailors in the Persian Gulf
Washington and Tehran must act now to prevent further escalation between their respective naval forces.
Jan 14, 2016
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran Seeks to Strengthen Its Deterrence by Showing Off Its Missile Force
By test-firing a new ballistic missile and flaunting a secret underground tunnel complex, Tehran hopes to reassure hardliners at home while defiantly showing the international community that it is still pursuing active deterrence and missile development.
Oct 28, 2015
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Russia's Cruise Missiles Raise the Stakes in the Caspian
The missile strikes on targets in Syria showed unprecedented cooperation between Russia and Iran, but they also serve as a wakeup call to Tehran about Moscow's expanding military profile in the Caspian.
Oct 8, 2015
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Farzin Nadimi
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