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All Policy Analysis by Farzin Nadimi
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Brief Analysis
Iran Vies for More Influence in Iraq at a Budget Price
Tehran aims to earn hard currency for its relatively cheap military hardware, ideally boosting its leverage in Baghdad at a fraction of the cost that the United States has been spending there.
Dec 3, 2020
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Tehran Eyes Lifting of Arms Embargo
The regime senses a major win in the forthcoming move, perceiving an isolated and weakened United States and opportunities for escalation on many fronts.
Oct 16, 2020
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Flare-Up in Nagorno-Karabakh: The Iranian Dimension
New hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan are forcing Tehran to balance domestic demographic concerns and its desire to expand military ties with Yerevan.
Oct 6, 2020
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran Flaunts New Missile and Jet Engine Technology
Although many of the recently unveiled systems are foreign copies or have unproven capabilities, they show a substantial indigenous development capacity that will only accelerate once the UN ban on weapons sales is lifted—even if past sanctions snap back into action.
Aug 28, 2020
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Farzin Nadimi
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
The IRGC Lifts Off:
Implications of Iran's Satellite Launch
In April 2020, the IRGC launched its first domestically made satellite, the Nour-1, into orbit. The launch showed the risks of lifting arms restrictions on Iran, a move supported by potential weapons trade partners Russia and China but vehemently opposed by the United States. Ending the embargo could facilitate Tehran’s
Aug 27, 2020
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran Applies Maximum Power to Annual IRGC Naval Exercise
Coming soon after Western naval redeployments in the Gulf and explosions at sensitive Iranian sites, the recent drills illustrate the regime’s eagerness to reassert its deterrence by showing off new weapons and capabilities.
Aug 10, 2020
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Farzin Nadimi
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iran-Syria Air Defense Pact Could Disrupt Allied Operations
Despite domestic challenges, major technical hurdles, and ongoing Israeli military interdiction, Iran still aims to transfer potent air defense systems to fellow ‘axis of resistance’ members and interconnect them.
Jul 24, 2020
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran Signals a Toughened Stance by Adding to Its Naval Arsenal
The regime may eventually use larger vessels to project power beyond the Gulf, but even its more modest recent additions portend further confrontations and weapons proliferation in local waters.
Jun 18, 2020
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Farzin Nadimi
Video
Brief Analysis
Iran's Asymmetric Naval Response to 'Maximum Pressure'
Three veteran observers of Iranian naval forces and doctrines assess the country's ability to punch above its weight in the Persian Gulf.
Jun 10, 2020
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Michael Connell
Farzin Nadimi
John Miller
Brief Analysis
May 10, 2020
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Farzin Nadimi
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Iran's Evolving Approach to Asymmetric Naval Warfare:
Strategy and Capabilities in the Persian Gulf
In an April 22 tweet, President Trump spoke of instructing the U.S. Navy to destroy any Iranian gunboats that "harass our ships at sea." Aside from whether it departed from existing U.S. rules of engagement, the statement highlighted a persistent reality: the military threat posed by Iranian forces in the
Apr 24, 2020
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran Gets Aggressive in the Northern Gulf Following U.S. Military Exercises
Recent joint drills by the U.S. Navy, Army, and Air Force have essentially challenged Tehran to a game of contested deterrence, spurring its forces to respond with swarm maneuvers and a vessel seizure.
Apr 21, 2020
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Qaani’s Surprise Visit to Baghdad and the Future of the PMF
The commander’s trip was aimed at uniting Shia militias against the United States and domestic political rivals, but facts on the ground show that the post-Soleimani Qods Force is losing its touch in Iraq.
Apr 10, 2020
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Farzin Nadimi
Hamdi Malik
Brief Analysis
Khamenei Securitizes the Pandemic as the IRGC Mulls Regional Action
With the regime leadership accusing the United States of using bioweapons and fomenting other hateful disinformation, the potential for violence against U.S. forces and interests will likely escalate.
Mar 27, 2020
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Farzin Nadimi
Video
Brief Analysis
The IRGC Post-Soleimani: Political and Security Implications at Home and Abroad
Three leading Iran scholars explore how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the broader regime will adapt their policies following the death of the seminal Qods Force commander.
Mar 3, 2020
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Ariane Tabatabai
Mehdi Khalaji
Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
The UN Exposes Houthi Reliance on Iranian Weapons
In addition to dispelling any lingering notion that last year’s Aramco attack came from Yemen, the report documents Iran’s efforts to help the rebels acquire advanced missiles, weapons components, and training.
Feb 13, 2020
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Lifting the Arms Restrictions on Iran: What Will and Won’t Change
UN limits on Iranian weapons transactions will expire in a few short months, and even snapback sanctions may be insufficient to prevent proliferation of dangerous arms to and from the regime.
Jan 23, 2020
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Europe Pushing Back on Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program
Britain, France, and Germany are taking a more proactive role by publicly emphasizing known concerns about the regime’s R&D efforts, but practical mechanisms for ensuring transparency are still needed.
Dec 9, 2019
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
The IRGC States Its Case for Escalation Against the United States, Britain, and Saudi Arabia
As its concerns about domestic dissent and Western naval activity grow, Tehran may once again try to divert attention from the unrest at home by launching attacks abroad.
Nov 26, 2019
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Gasoline Protests: Regime Unpopular but Resilient
The demonstrations indicate widespread popular rejection of the political system, but this same system remains well organized to deflect and counter unrest.
Nov 18, 2019
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Patrick Clawson
Mehdi Khalaji
Farzin Nadimi
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