Policy Analysis

Russia is victorious in Syria. It has succeeded in rescuing the Damascus regime, its difficult yet valuable client, from what seemed to be an unavoidable demise. More importantly, it has leveraged the crisis management of the Syrian conflict to create a regional balance between seemingly incompatible powers — Israel, Turkey

The battle for the suburbs of Damascus was nearing its end. The regime units — equipped, backed, and supplemented by Russian and Iranian forces — were on the verge of achieving total victory: the defeat of all rebel factions, the expulsion of a population that had demonstrated its lack of

In May 2018, Iraqis will again dip their forefingers in that purple ink and choose their representatives for Parliament. Unlike previous elections, this election has a unique taste of importance as it comes right after the declaration of victory against IS (Islamic State) in Iraq. The next parliament will form

1- How Should the New U.S. President Play the "Kurdish Card" in the Middle East? Frzand Sherko - January 10, 2017 Kurdish researcher Frzand Sherko argues that while the next U.S. administration may no longer want to play a direct role in the Middle East, they can still leverage the

February 28, 2018 This piece by Firas Elias presents a best-case scenario for the Turkish operation in Afrin. It suggests that Ankara’s action may deny Iran access to the Mediterranean, disrupt or even reverse the Damascus regime’s gains in the crucial hinterland of Aleppo, and pit IS against Iranian proxies

February 28, 2018 No Help from Moscow Ms. Alrifai’s thoughtful article calls for U.S.-Russian coordination to force President Assad to give up power. Unfortunately, I doubt very much that the Russians would be interested in such an outcome for many reasons. First, the Soviets or Russians have been allied with

February 27, 2018 The latest Iranian reaction to the Turkish military operation against the Kurds in Syria’s northwest province of Afrin highlights the political complexity of the Syrian case. Though Turkey and Iran have previously demonstrated a high level of political agreement regarding the Kurdish issue in northern Syria, including

February 21, 2018 Despite the current tactical moves by the Assad regime’s remaining forces to “protect” the Kurds in Syria’s northwestern Afrin province, the regime continues to threaten Syrian Kurds and hint at a restoration of the status quo: a reversal of the federation and self-administration of their areas and

January 8, 2018 Hardly any event attended by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and other Turkish officials passes without mention of the threat the People’s Protection Unit (YPG) poses to Turkey’s national security followed by threats that a military campaign to destroy the YPG is only a matter of time

At this current juncture there is not a viable path for either Syrian rebel forces nor for the opposition to win the war on their own. Saving Syria requires international cooperation by executing an effective plan to end the crisis. The best way forward is for the United States to

December 11, 2017 Iran resorts to multiple and contradictory narratives in its international outreach. Tehran is offered to the West as a natural ally against (Sunni) terrorism, while for the rest of the world it is a role model of self-sufficiency, if not autarky, in the face of the arrogant

November 13, 2017 The sudden and surprising resignation of Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri over the weekend, blaming Iranian interference in his country, compels us to consider this tragic dilemma. Of particular interest—and importance—is the way Iran has used Hezbollah, an intrinsic part of Lebanon’s political fabric, as a means

September 12, 2017 Syria’s economic and political stability have long been predicated on a grand bargain of water access. Since Hafez al-Assad seized power in 1970, the Syrian government has manipulated public access to water for political ends. The regime uses water to buy and maintain loyalty, intimidate opponents, and

August 30, 2017 When Russia began its military intervention in Syria, it was motivated more by political incentives than economic ones. However, now that victory increasingly favors the Assad regime, Russia has found new opportunity to bolster its foothold in the region. With the opposition forces relatively subdued and prospects

August 25, 2017 In the prolonged search for a solution, the Syrian conflict has influenced Russian-Turkish relations greatly, causing either tension or rapprochement depending on each country’s often conflicting interests. But the major change occurred after Turkey’s failed coup and Russia’s supportive position towards the Turkish regime afterwards. As a

July 20, 2017 Before Congress can reach a conclusion on the administration’s proposed budget, President Donald Trump needs to articulate a strategy for counter-terrorism and the ongoing war in Syria. A new policy should specify its political objectives regarding the Syrian government and other actors in the region. There are

Depending upon whom you talk to, anywhere from six to sixteen ethnic groups constitute the Syrian population, with the main six groups being: Sunni Muslim; Shiite Muslim (Alawite and Ismaili); Christian; Druze; Kurd; Circassian; and the stateless Palestinian refugees and their descendants. The Christians are not foreign to the Syrian

Syria and Lebanon have always had a contentious border, but the Syrian war -- and its different factions -- have made it far more complex than before.

The Kurdish question in Syria has long been a point of contention between the United States and Turkey. Throughout former president Barack Obama’s time in office, the primary determinant shaping U.S. strategy against ISIS was a reliance on Kurdish forces. This furtive reliance existed despite Turkish refusal to allow the

May 8, 2017 I had not been to Qamishli for twenty years. As a Ph.D. student at the French Institute for the Near East, I went with two friends in the late 1990s to explore northeast Syria. This journey led us to Raqqa, Deir al-Zour, Hasaka, and Qamishli. Since 1997