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All Policy Analysis by Soner Cagaptay
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Brief Analysis
Istanbul Election Will Shape Erdogan’s Policy Trajectory
If the president’s faction takes the city back from the opposition on March 31, he may feel comfortable enough to focus on more positive legacy-building steps, but a loss could see him double down on nativist and populist policies at home and abroad.
۲۲ مارس ۲۰۲۴
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
How Turkey Moved East
Once Washington comes to grips with Erdogan’s “Anatolian” foreign policy, it will have a better chance of steering the relationship in ways that support U.S. interests without unduly boosting Russia and other adversaries.
۱۹ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۴
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
The Future of U.S.-Turkish Ties: A New Relationship, Not a Reset
Despite the welcome news on Sweden, the old Turkey is not coming back, but Erdogan’s apparent shift to legacy-building mode will give Washington opportunities to leverage his influence abroad.
۲۶ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
Soner Cagaptay
مقالهها و دیدگاهها
شرق و غرب: ترکیه به کدام سو رو میکند؟
پرزیدنت اردوغان تلاش کرده ترکیه را با تصویری که خود دارد بازآفرینی کند: به لحاظ اجتماعی محافظهکار، به لحاظ سیاسی اسلامگرا، و کشوری خاورمیانهای با هدف نهایی احیای جایگاه خود به عنوان یک ابرقدرت.
۳۱ مهٔ ۲۰۲۳
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سونر چغاپتای
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan’s Russian Victory
His months-long efforts to neuter the opposition ahead of this weekend’s win suggest that Turkey is shifting closer to a Putin-style autocracy than an illiberal European democracy.
۲۹ مهٔ ۲۰۲۳
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Soner Cagaptay
Video
Brief Analysis
Turkey's Presidential Runoff: What to Expect May 28 and After
A panel of journalists and scholars discuss the policy implications of various scenarios that might emerge from the final round of Turkey’s election.
۲۶ مهٔ ۲۰۲۳
◆
Elcin Poyrazlar
Emre Peker
Humeyra Pamuk
Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Even If Erdogan Is Defeated, Turkey Is Still Up for Grabs
Western gestures on trade and defense could reinforce a pro-democratic outcome and counter interference by Vladimir Putin.
۱۱ مهٔ ۲۰۲۳
◆
Soner Cagaptay
گزارشهای تفصیلی
انتخابات حیاتی ۲۰۲۳ ترکیه:
مسائل، نتایج احتمالی، و پیامدها
نظرسنجیها رقبا را امیدوار میکند، ولی کنترل اردوغان بر رسانهها و دیگر عوامل میتواند تلاش آنها را برای بالاخره سرنگون کردن رئیسجمهور و بلوک حاکم او عقیم بگذارد.
۹ مهٔ ۲۰۲۳
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سونر چغاپتای
Video
Brief Analysis
Turkey's Historic May 14 Elections: What to Expect
Watch an expert webcast as scholars and journalists preview Turkey's historic 2023 elections and their implications for Turkish policy, the wider Middle East, and Washington's relationship with Ankara.
May 12, 2023
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Soner Cagaptay
Seren Selvin Korkmaz
Emre Peker
Ragip Soylu
Video
Articles & Testimony
Turkish Elections: The Last Vote?
In this video, Beyer Family Fellow Soner Cagaptay provides context for the upcoming election and assesses Erdogan's prospects for success.
۵ مهٔ ۲۰۲۳
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Turkey’s Resilient Autocrat
A closer look at how the levers of state—and powerful friends—could help Erdogan win his toughest election yet.
۴ مهٔ ۲۰۲۳
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Unpacking Turkey’s Non-Binary Ukraine War Policy
Erdogan's stance has been pro-Ukrainian but not anti-Russian, enabling him to strike a delicate balance between NATO expectations, Moscow’s economic lifeline, and domestic political pressures.
۷ مارس ۲۰۲۳
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Turkey’s Disaster—and Erdogan’s: How the Earthquake Could Spell the End of His Rule
The president might find the current situation ominously similar to two decades ago, when a combination of devastating natural disaster and deep public dissatisfaction swept his Islamist faction to power.
۱ مارس ۲۰۲۳
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Soner Cagaptay
Video
Brief Analysis
Earthquake in Syria and Turkey: U.S. Policy Implications
A panel of experts offers on-the-ground insights from the disaster zone and discusses the political and policy consequences of the still-unfolding humanitarian crisis.
۱۷ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۳
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Can Selcuki
Amany Qaddour
Soner Cagaptay
Andrew J. Tabler
Brief Analysis
How Will Turkey’s Earthquake Affect the Current Election Cycle?
Once Ankara meets the initial challenge of determining an election date amid unimaginable human tragedy, it will face a campaign season dominated by debates over the conduct of relief efforts and the government’s level of responsibility for the growing death toll.
۱۴ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۳
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
When Will Turkey Ratify Sweden and Finland’s NATO Accession?
The key to an “F-16s for NATO expansion” agreement lies in the sequencing, with President Biden facing congressional opposition and President Erdogan dealing with economic and election challenges.
۲۵ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۳
◆
Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Will Turkey Ratify Sweden and Finland’s NATO Accession?
Although Ankara will likely approve the Nordic expansion down the road, hurdles remain for Sweden, and Russia may play the spoiler’s role unless Washington facilitates the process.
۲۲ نوامبر ۲۰۲۲
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Soner Cagaptay
Michael Singh
Sude Akgundogdu
Articles & Testimony
Bismarck on the Bosporus
Turkey’s president faces a reinvigorated opposition at home, but he is trying to show he can still win elections while also playing Russia, the United States, and Europe against one another.
۱۳ اکتبر ۲۰۲۲
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
How Turkey Views Russian Naval Access to the Black Sea
Despite supporting Ukraine militarily, President Erdogan has crucial political and economic reasons for preserving good ties with Moscow, so he is unlikely to take any actions in the Black Sea that are not strictly laid out in the Montreux Convention.
۲ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۲
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Soner Cagaptay
تحلیل کوتاه
آیا ملاقات پوتین-اردوغان-رئیسی به حمله ترکیه به سوریه میانجامد؟
مسکو و تهران ممکن است به یک عملیات برونمرزی دیگر از طرف ترکیه رضایت دهند، ولی انتخاب اهداف ترکیه به منافع چندگانه آمریکا، روسیه و ایران بستگی خواهد داشت.
۲۶ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۲
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سونر چغاپتای
اندرو جی. تابلر
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