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All Policy Analysis by Fabrice Balanche
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Brief Analysis
How to Preserve the Autonomy of Northeast Syria
To offset the destabilizing measures coming from Turkey and the Assad axis, Western governments need to offer more development assistance—but in a targeted way that reassures local authorities and minimizes mismanagement.
۱۵ مارس ۲۰۲۲
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Assad Regime Has Failed to Restore Full Sovereignty Over Syria
By ceding control of its borders and airspace to various foreign actors, the regime has essentially resigned itself to a limited but potentially durable existence for the long term.
۱۰ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۱
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Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
The Fragile Status Quo in Northeast Syria
The mixed Kurdish-Arab zone could buckle under any number of security, health, and economic threats, especially if the United States surrenders to Russian and Turkish interests by withdrawing its remaining forces.
۱ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۰
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Idlib May Become the Next Gaza Strip
Given the military situation on the ground and the overriding interests of each party, the jihadist-run rebel pocket will likely be further reduced into a small, overpopulated border strip north of the M4 highway.
۲۶ مارس ۲۰۲۰
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Latest Battle for Idlib Could Send Another Wave of Refugees to Europe
Various displacement scenarios may unfold as the fighting escalates, each carrying a high risk of negative humanitarian and economic consequences even if the parties live up to their promises.
۱۰ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۰
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
A Humanitarian Time Bomb in Idlib
As the latest regime offensive continues, hundreds of thousands of civilians are fleeing to overcrowded border camps, furthering Assad’s strategy of emptying as much of the Sunni Arab population as possible.
۲۸ ژوئن ۲۰۱۹
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
No More Turkish Veto on Idlib Offensive?
Ankara’s calculations about the rebel province appear to have shifted, though it still hopes to use the situation as leverage for constraining the YPG and preventing another refugee influx.
۱۴ مهٔ ۲۰۱۹
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
For Assad, Manbij Is the Key to East Syria
Reestablishing control in Manbij is the only way to build influence across the Euphrates, and now that U.S. troops are set to leave, both Russia and local Arab tribes may support this regime goal.
۵ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۹
◆
Fabrice Balanche
تحلیل کوتاه
تل ابیض: پاشنه آشیل نوار کردنشین سوریه
ترکیب قومی این ناحیه و مهاجرتهای زمان جنگ، این منطقه را به ضعیفترین نقطه نظام دفاعی یگانهای مدافع خلق و بهترین گزینه ورود نیروهای نظامی ترکیه و نیروهای نیابتی آن تبدیل کرده است.
۲۱ دسامبر ۲۰۱۸
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فابريس بالانش
تحلیل کوتاه
هدف احتمالی عمليات ادلب در مرحله اول: شورشیان تحت حمايت ترکیه
اگر اسد و متحداناش راهبرد قبلیشان را ادامه دهند، حمله اولیه به ادلب ممکن است محدود باشد، هرچند باز هم باعث سرازیر شدن سیل عظیمی از پناهندگان خواهد شد و منجر به شکافی جدی میان ترکیه و روسیه میشود.
۱۱ سپتامبر ۲۰۱۸
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فابريس بالانش
Multimedia
Brief Analysis
Charting Sectarianism in the Syria War
Does Syria's climate of ethnic and sectarian hostility stem from seven years of war, or do its social fissures predate the conflict?
۸ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۸
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Fabrice Balanche
Andrew J. Tabler
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Sectarianism in Syria's Civil War
A Geopolitical Study
This study, illustrated with 70 original maps and graphics, fosters a deeper understanding of the role sectarianism has played in Syria's war and reassesses the notion that the regime's divisive efforts singlehandedly transformed the secular and democratic revolution of 2011 into the brutal sectarian conflict of today.
۵ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۸
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Preventing a Jihadist Factory in Idlib
The international coalition must take the same comprehensive approach to HTS as it is taking to the Islamic State.
۳۱ اوت ۲۰۱۷
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Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
۲۴ اوت ۲۰۱۷
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Race for Deir al-Zour Province
The SDF and U.S.-supported Arab fighters likely lack the might and unity to overcome Assad-regime advances and other obstacles.
۱۷ اوت ۲۰۱۷
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Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
Not Money Alone: The Challenges of Syrian Reconstruction
A dedication to rural residents, more-efficient farming techniques, and a focus on cities other than Damascus will be necessary to build a new Syria.
۹ اوت ۲۰۱۷
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Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
An Opening for the Syrian Regime in Deir al-Zour
Events on the ground are fluid in the eastern Syrian city and province, but dynamics suggest Syrian forces and their backers will prevail over the Islamic State and U.S.-supported fighters.
۱۲ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۷
◆
Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
A Half-Million Syrian Returnees? A Look Behind the Numbers
Closer examination reveals that far more refugees are leaving Syria than coming home and that security and corruption represent major obstacles to their return.
۷ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۷
◆
Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Growing Risk of International Confrontation in the Syrian Desert
Various players have been rushing to secure their spot in former Islamic State strongholds that will be strategically important to the next phase of the war.
۲۶ مهٔ ۲۰۱۷
◆
Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Kurdish Path to Socialism in Syria
To maintain its dominant position and stay true to its ideological roots, the PYD is pushing socialist policies on a skeptical Rojava populace, with uncertain consequences for the future of the Syrian Kurdish zone.
۱۶ مهٔ ۲۰۱۷
◆
Fabrice Balanche
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