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Turkey 2020

Soner Cagaptay

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CGA Scenarios

Spring 2011


In May 2011, a panel of Turkey experts debated likely scenarios for Turkey's social, political, and diplomatic future.

On May 21, 2011, Washington Institute Turkish Research Program director Soner Cagaptay joined a group of leading experts on Turkey at NYU's Center for Global Affairs in a dialogue on likely scenarios for the future of Turkey to the year 2020. Their objective was to identify and develop three plausible, distinct, and consequential scenarios that merit the attention of U.S. policymakers.

The workshop's participants crafted three such scenarios for Turkey's social, political, and diplomatic future:

  1. Illiberal Islamism;
  2. Illiberal Secularism; and
  3. Political Pluralism.