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Military Victory in Mosul Likely to Lift P.M. Abadi's Reelection Campaign

Bilal Wahab

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Cipher Brief

June 2, 2017


Without a concrete plan for the aftermath of the city's fall, a very complex multilateral conflict may soon erupt in northern Iraq.

Cipher Brief: Once ISIS is cleared from its last pockets in western Mosul, what will be the immediate effects on Mosul? What will we see in the weeks following?

Bilal Wahab: On the Iraqi side, there will be a boost of confidence to the Iraqi military, whose efficacy and competence came under dire scrutiny in 2014 after ISIS captured one-third of the country in a matter of days. Politically, Prime Minister Haider al Abadi and the government in Baghdad will try to maximize the political benefits of this victory. You can expect a show of force or a kind of "mission accomplished" grandiose political gesture...

Read the full interview on the Cipher Brief website.